Pot Odds &
Outs
Probability and
odds are
huge factors in Texas hold
'em.
Players use odds to determine their
actions. The chances of finishing a flush
or a straight, the probability of getting
an over card, the percentage of times
you're going to flop a set to match your
pocket pair are all important factors in
poker. Knowledge of these statistics is a
key to winning. In online games especially
with very few (if any) tells, statistical
knowledge becomes the main factor when
choosing whether to bet, call, or
fold.
Pot
odds decisions are one of poker's most
elementary, yet it is one of the most
common mistakes made by amateur players at
all levels. You will most likely
always find a player who is making bad pot
odd decisions or ignoring them entirely,
meanwhile paying off the rest of the
table!
In
Texas Hold 'Em, you commonly use outs and
pot odds the most. This is also the
starting point for those who want to learn
about poker odds. To those out there who
"ain't good at countin' much", you better
get good because that is how it's done.
Outs are defined as a card in the deck that
helps you make your hand. At this
point it's only simple
division.
The
numerator (top
number) will be the number of outs you have. The
denominator
(bottom number) is the number of cards left that we haven't
seen. The result will be the
percentage chance of making one of those
outs. Therefore, the most math you'll be
doing will be dividing small numbers by 50
(pre-flop), 47 (after the flop), or 46
(after the turn)
Pot
odds are as easy as computing outs. You
compare your outs or your chance of winning
to the size of the pot. If your chance of
winning is significantly better than the
ratio of the pot size to a bet, then you
have good pot odds. If it's lower, then you
have bad pot odds.
For
example, say you are in a $5/$10 hold em
game with Jack-Ten facing one opponent on
the turn. You have an outside straight draw
with a board of 2-5-9-Q, and only the river
card left to make it. Any 8 or any King
will finish this straight for you, so you
have 8 outs (four 8's and 4 K's left in the
deck) and 46 unseen cards left. 8/46 is
almost the same as a 1 in 6 chance of
making it. Your sole opponent bets $10. If
you take a $10 bet you could win $200.
$200/$10 is 20, so you stand to make 20x
more if you call. 1/6 higher than 1/20, so
pot odds say that calling wouldn't be a bad
idea.
The
next step is to use bet
odds and implied odds. That's
tougher, because it involves predicting
reactions of other players. With bet odds,
you try to factor in how many people are
going to call a raise. With implied odds,
you're thinking about reactions for the
rest of the game. One last example on
implied odds...
Say
it's another $5/$10 hold em game and you
have a four flush on the flop. Your
neighbor bets, and everyone else folds. The
pot is $50 at this point. First you figure
out your chance of hitting your flush on
the turn, and it comes out to about 19.1%
(about 1 in 5). You have to call this $5
bet versus a $50 pot, so that's a 10x
payout. 1/5 is higher than 1/10, so bet
odds are okay, but you must consider that
this guy's going to bet into you on the
turn and river also. That's the $5 plus two
more $10 bets. So now you’re facing $25
more till the end of the
hand.
You
have to consider your chances of hitting
that flush on the turn or river, which
makes it about 35% (better than 1 in 3
now), but you have to invest $25 for a
finishing pot of $100: $100/$25 with
1 in 4. That's pretty close. But there's
more! If you don't make it on the
turn, it'll change your outs and odds!
You'll have a 19.6% chance of hitting the
flush (little worse than 1 in 5), but a $20
investment for a finishing pot of $100!
$100/$20 is 1 in 5. So the chances would
take a nasty turn if you didn't hit it!
What's makes it more complicated is that if
you did hit it on the turn, you could raise
him back, and get an extra $20 or maybe
even $40 in the pot.
Is
there an easier way to calculate pot
odds? Thankfully, there are several short cuts that
have been devised to make a quick judgment
for pot
odds.
One of
the easiest methods is to take your total
outs, multiply times 2, and then add
2. This is roughly a percentage
chance of making your
hand.
For
example, say you have an inside straight
draw with 4 outs. 4x2 = 8. Add
2, for a total of 10. You have
roughly a 10% chance to make your
hand. Your call should be no more
than 10% of what is already in the
pot. This method is quick and
decently effective, though certain
calculations will be a bit off.
This method does
not
take into consideration the fact that
you may have more than one card
remaining to come; it simply
estimates your chance of hitting your
“out” on your next
card.
There
are a number of tools online that help you
calculate your odds. Just do a Google
search, and you’ll find several. Keep
in mind, though, that using them may
significantly slow your play and cause your
fellow players to interpret this as a
“tell”.
Playing
your pocket cards is key, but you’ll also
need to know some strategies when it comes
to the flop and the
river.
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